An empirical analysis of joint residential electricity efficiency gains within and across end uses: implications for demand-side management

To better understand the observed performance of demand-side approaches on residential electricity use, we develop and apply a mixed regression model of electricity consumption that includes marginal, joint technical change for multiple residential electricity end-uses (air conditioning, appliances, devices, and electric vehicles). Results indicate that the relative technical state of a home can significantly influence the performance of demand-side interventions, particularly the presence of a programmable thermostat. Within air conditioning, we generally find that “enough” consistent technical improvement is needed to realize energy savings, which could be due to engineering building performance or a declining marginal rebound effect as householders become thermally comfortable. Results indicate that homeowners do not leverage efficiency gains for appliance services but demonstrate mixed results when considering the expansion of electricity services. Householders may rebound into device loads, albeit such results are not statistically significant. However, results indicate that householders do not leverage efficiency gains for electric vehicles. These results demonstrate that the net effect of technological change in households is relative to a home's baseline technical efficiency and the degree to which homeowners seek new and existing energy services, challenging empirical assessments that do not control for the technical state of multiple end uses.