Civil unrest and the poaching of rhinos in the Kaziranga National Park, India

- Rhino census data in Assam is used to calibrate a logistic growth function.
- Rhino poaching data is used to econometrically estimate a harvest function.
- The effect of institutional and civil unrest in Assam on poaching is identified.
- Goodness of fit between the data and the estimates are examined.

Civil unrest and political instability have been associated with endangered species poaching. This paper accounts for a period of civil unrest in Assam, India, which saw a marked increase in rhino poaching. Census data on the greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in the Kaziranga National Park in Assam are used to estimate a population growth function. In calibrating the growth function's parameters the census data are used in conjunction with rhino poaching data. The rhino population and poaching data are used to econometrically estimate a harvest function. The relationship between civil unrest and rhino poaching is identified as positive and significant. The analysis factors in the probable relationships between poaching and several additional variables - including black market rhino horn prices, potential size of black markets, and anti-poaching efforts. These variables are seen to have the predicted associations with poaching, and help isolate the latter's relationship with civil unrest in the regression models. The goodness of fit between the data on rhino population and poaching and the estimates from regression models are studied.