Policy dilemma of innovation: An info-gap approach

New ideas or technologies are often advocated because of their purported improvements on existing methods. However, what is new is usually less well-known and less widely tested than what is old. New methods may entail greater unknown dangers as well as greater potential advantages. The policy maker who must choose between innovation and convention faces a dilemma of innovation. We present a methodology, based on info-gap robustness, to deal with the innovation dilemma. We illustrate the approach by examining the policy decisions for managing the light brown apple moth in California.

► Innovative technology is often putatively better but more uncertain due to newness. ► New methods may entail greater potential advantages and greater unknown dangers. ► Choice between innovative and conventional options presents a policy dilemma. ► This innovation dilemma in policy selection is resolved with info-gap robustness. ► Managing apple moths illustrates the innovation dilemma and its info-gap resolution.