Afforestation and timber management compliance strategies in climate policy. A computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper analyzes the role of forest-based carbon sequestration in a unilateral EU27 emissions reduction policy under a Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. Forestry mitigation is introduced into the model relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by a global forestry model. The structure of the original CGE is extended to consider land use change and timber supply effects, resulting from the use of forest sinks to reduce carbon emissions. Results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs. By using forest-carbon sinks it is possible to achieve the 30% emissions reduction target with an additional European effort of only 0.2% of GDP compared with the cost of a 20% emissions reduction without forestry. Carbon price is also reduced, by approximately 30% in 2020. European forest-carbon sequestration may have, however, the perverse effect of increasing timber production in areas of the world which already have high deforestation rates. A sensitivity analysis on main parameters confirms the robustness of our results.

► We analyze the role of forest carbon sequestration in stabilizing climate, in Europe. ► We use a Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze forest carbon effects. ► The inclusion of afforestation and timber management leads to lower policy costs. ► Carbon price drops by around 30% in 2020 reducing the leakage effect. ► European forest-carbon sequestration may increase tropical deforestation.