A spatial model of coastal ecosystem services

Evidence suggests that the ecological functions underlying many ecosystem goods and services are spatially variable. For coastal systems, a simple model is developed incorporating a spatial production function that declines across an ecological landscape. The basic model demonstrates how spatial production of ecosystem services affects the location and extent of landscape conversion. An extension allows for the risk of ecological collapse, when the critical size of the remaining landscape that precipitates the collapse is not known. Both models are simulated using the example of spatial variation in ecosystem services across a mangrove habitat that might be converted to shrimp aquaculture.

► We model ecological production functions that decline across a coastal landscape. ► Such spatial variation affects the location and extent of landscape conversion. ► An extension incorporates the risk of ecological collapse. ► Simulations show the effects on converting mangrove habitat to shrimp aquaculture.