Decomposing the decoupling of CO2 emissions and economic growth in Brazil

This paper examines the occurrence of a decoupling between the growth rates in economic activity and CO2 emissions from energy consumption in Brazil from 2004 to 2009. This decoupling was highlighted when economic activity and CO2 emissions moved in opposite directions in 2009. More generally, we observe several periods of relative decoupling in Brazil, but not to the extent witnessed in 2009. To identify the determinants of emissions change, we develop a decomposition model based on a log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) framework. The results indicate that the carbon intensity and energy mix are the main determinant of emissions reduction in Brazil between 2004 and 2009. Modifications in the economy structure are also associated to emission mitigation in the period. Such evidence demonstrates similarities with events of decoupling registered for the interval 1980-1994 in Brazil. Finds from Brazil differ from observations in other countries in which improvement in energy intensity has been the most common determinant of emissions reduction.

Research Highlights► It provides evidences of a possible first event of absolute decoupling between emissions from energy combustion and economic activity in Brazil in 2009. ► It provides the driving reasons for CO2 emission changes based on a decomposition model. ► Relative and absolute decoupling events in Brazil are,in general, associated to energy mix diversification, carbon intensity improvement and economy structure shifts. ► Compared with references from the literature, it is observed that Brazil strategy to emission mitigation from energy consumption is associated to fuel diversification (rational usage of natural resources) rather than improves in energy intensity (technological route).