Impacts of EU carbon emission trade directive on energy-intensive industries - Indicative micro-economic analyses

The cost impacts from the European emission trading system (ETS) on energy-intensive manufacturing industries have been investigated. The effects consist of direct costs associated to the CO2 reduction requirements stated in the EU Directive, and of indirect costs of comparable magnitude that originate from a higher electricity price triggered by the ETS in the power sector. The total cost impacts remain below 2% of the production value for most industries within the ETS in the Kyoto period. In the post-Kyoto phase assuming a 30% CO2 reduction, the total cost impact may raise up to 8% of production value in the heaviest industry sectors. In steel and cement industries the cost impacts are 3-4 fold compared to the least affected pulp and paper and oil refining. Electricity-intensive industries outside the ETS will also be affected, for example in aluminum and chlorine production the indirect cost impacts from ETS could come up to 10% of production value already in the Kyoto period. As industry sectors are affected differently by the ETS some correcting mechanisms may be worthwhile to consider in securing the operation of the most electricity-intensive sectors, e.g. balancing taxation schemes that may include as income source a levy on the wind-fall profits of the power sector due to ETS. A future improvement in ETS for industries within the scheme could be scaling of the emission reduction requirement so that the relative total emission reduction costs are at about the same level.