The causal effects of survivors' benefits on health status and poverty of widows in Turkey: Evidence from Bayesian Networks

This study examines the effects of survivor benefits on health status and wealth in households of widowed mothers. The analysis relies on the cross-sectional Income and Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) in Turkey over the period 2006-2012. We apply Ordered Logit and Probit models, and we propose the Bayesian Network (BN) framework to explore the causal effects of survivor benefits using observational data. The results show that the widowed mothers who receive the benefits are more likely to report higher levels of health status by 0.11 units on a scale between 1-5. In addition, their wealth is improved. For the sample of the survivor benefit claimants, the effects of the benefits are positive, and they improve health status by about 6 per cent.