Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle*

- We investigate spillovers in the oil sector-housing market cycle using duration models.
- Housing booms and normal times have similar lengths in oil importers and exporters.
- Housing boom episodes are shorter when oil prices increase.
- Net oil importers are especially vulnerable to protracted housing slump episodes.

We assess the spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle using quarterly data for 20 net oil-exporting and -importing industrial countries, and employing continuous- and discrete-time duration models. We do not uncover a statistically significant difference in the average duration of booms and normal times in the housing markets of those net oil-importers and net oil-exporters. Similarly, the degree of exposure to commodity price fluctuations does not seem to significantly affect the housing market cycle. However, we find that housing booms are shorter when oil prices increase than housing busts when oil prices decrease. We also show that the net oil-importers are more vulnerable to protracted housing slump episodes than the net-oil exporters.