کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5063874 | 1476703 | 2017 | 50 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150Â years of data
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper investigates the role of permanent and transitory shocks, within the framework of common cycles and common trends, in explaining stock and oil prices. We perform a multivariate variance decomposition analysis of monthly data on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the S&P 500. The dataset used in the study spans a long period of 150Â years and therefore contains a rich history to examine both the short- and long-run comovement properties of oil and stock prices. Given that the oil and stock markets might comove both in the short- and long-run, it is of interest to see the relative impacts of transitory and permanent shocks on both variables. We find that (log) oil price and (log) S&P 500 share a common stochastic trend for our full sample of September 1859 to July 2015, but a common cycle only exists during the post-WW II period. Full and post-WW II samples have quite different common feature estimates in terms of the impact of permanent and transitory shocks as measured by the impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions. We also find that in the short-run oil is driven mostly by cycles (transitory shocks) and stock market is mostly driven by permanent shocks. But, permanent shocks dominate in the long-run.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 61, January 2017, Pages 72-86
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 61, January 2017, Pages 72-86
نویسندگان
Mehmet Balcilar, Rangan Gupta, Mark E. Wohar,