Introduction: North American natural gas markets in transition

• Introduces a study comparing results for 9 scenarios from 16 models
• Highlights key conclusions from individual modeling teams
• U.S. clean power plan may escalate natural gas use in the 2020–2030 period.
• Model structures and market assumptions lead to important differences in U.S. exports.

Over many decades, energy markets have seen a variety of new technologies with the potential of replacing existing practices for providing conventional fossil fuels. Unlike synthetic fuels during the 1970s or hydrogen during the 2000s, however, hydraulic fracturing for producing natural gas shale resources has had a dramatic impact because it has been cost effective. This article describes a model-comparison effort organized by Stanford's Energy Modeling Forum and provides a brief overview of the principal findings by individual modeling teams that participated in the study.