Cross-border constraints, institutional changes and integration of the Dutch-German gas market

- The Dutch and German gas markets have become more integrated over the past years.
- We model integration as the impact of cross-border constraints on price differences.
- We analyse the institutional changes that have contributed to more integration.
- Improved connections within Germany contributed to integration with Dutch market.
- Liquidity-enhancing measures on TTF had a negligible effect on market integration.

We evaluate the contribution of nine institutional changes to the integration of the Dutch and German gas markets. We analyse this contribution through the impact of bottlenecks in the cross-border infrastructure on the absolute value of cross-border price differences. In the period 2007-2013, the absolute value of the differences in price levels between the Dutch and the German NCG market decreased, indicating more integration. We find evidence that the improved connections within the German networks as well as between the Dutch and the German network contributed to this. The strengthening of the connections with the UK market and the Russian supply, however, had a negative effect on market integration between the Dutch and the German NCG market. The liquidity-enhancing changes within the Dutch market had a negligible effect.