A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

- Impact analysis of European Union energy efficiency policy.
- Harmonization of top-down energy consumption and bottom-up energy efficiency indicators.
- Fixed effects models for Member States for household and manufacturing sectors and combined electricity and natural gas usage.
- EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 are estimated to have saved 1136 Petajoules.
- Energy savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 are 5.6 percent of 2011 combined electricity and natural gas usage.

This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes.