کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5064637 | 1476719 | 2014 | 31 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
در ارتباط بین قیمت نفت و فلزات گرانبها: بازنگری در یک درخت تصمیم گیری تغییر چند ردیف رژیم
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
This study examines the volatility and correlation and their relationships among the euro/US dollar exchange rates, the S&P500 equity indices, and the prices of WTI crude oil and the precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum) over the period 2005 to 2012. Our model links the univariate volatilities with the correlations via a hidden stochastic decision tree. The ensuing Hidden Markov Decision Tree (HMDT) model is in fact an extension of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) introduced by Jordan et al. (1997). The architecture of this model is the opposite that of the classical deterministic approach based on a binary decision tree and, it allows a probabilistic vision of the relationship between univariate volatility and correlation. Our results are categorized into three groups, namely (1) exchange rates and oil, (2) S&P500 indices, and (3) precious metals. A switching dynamics is seen to characterize the volatilities, while, in the case of the correlations, the series switch from one regime to another, this movement touching a peak during the period of the Subprime crisis in the US, and again during the days following the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. Our findings show that the relationships between volatility and correlation are dependent upon the nature of the series considered, sometimes corresponding to those found in econometric studies, according to which correlation increases in bear markets, at other times differing from them.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 44, July 2014, Pages 456-467
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 44, July 2014, Pages 456-467
نویسندگان
Philippe Charlot, Vêlayoudom Marimoutou,