Speculative trading and oil price dynamic: A study of the WTI market

The aim of this paper is to study the oil price dynamic in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market in the US. By using statistical and econometric tools, we first attempt to identify the long term relationship between WTI spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Subsequently we model the short term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks. On this basis, a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model (MS-VECM) with two distinct states (standard state and crisis state) has been estimated. Finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the NYMEX for the WTI contracts and we estimate the influence of the non-commercial players. We conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of non-commercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected. In addition, we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts, as measured by the volume of open interest, is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices.

► We study the relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices. ► We estimate a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model. ► We estimate two distinct states standard and crisis state. ► We conclude on the influence of non-commercial players on the probability for switching to the crisis state. ► We point out that the level of liquidity is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices.