Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success

► Exploration for oil might lead to false perceptions of decreasing scarcity. ► Exploration is simulated with an agent using Bayesian updating. ► The agent strives to maximize the success rate based on available information. ► Information has a significant but brief effect on the success rate. ► Due to biased information, the agent tends to overestimate the total resource size.