International coal trade and restrictions on coal consumption

Coal consumption is a major source of CO2 emissions and other air pollutants and is therefore a focus of environmental policy. However, countries that restrict their coal consumption will likely expand their coal exports to foreign markets with fewer restrictions on consumption. The adjustment in international trade will mitigate the impact on coal industry employment but will also reverse some of the reduction in global emissions. This paper quantifies the impact of restrictions on coal consumption in the United States and several other large countries on global coal consumption, trade, and industry employment. The impact calculations are based on an econometric model of the international coal market. The parameters of the model are fitted to panel data on coal consumption and production in 53 countries.

► I model country-specific restrictions on coal consumption. ► I model the resulting impact on coal trade, employment, and emissions. ► The model is fitted to data on coal consumption and production in 53 countries.