کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5065313 1372311 2012 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
What are the starting points? Evaluating base-year assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
What are the starting points? Evaluating base-year assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise
چکیده انگلیسی

A common feature of model inter-comparison efforts is that the base year numbers for important parameters such as population and GDP can differ substantially across models. This paper explores the sources and implications of this variation in Asian countries across the models participating in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). Because the models do not all have a common base year, each team was required to provide data for 2005 for comparison purposes. This paper compares the year 2005 information for different models, noting the degree of variation in important parameters, including population, GDP, primary energy, electricity, and CO2 emissions. It then explores the difference in these key parameters across different sources of base-year information. The analysis confirms that the sources provide different values for many key parameters. This variation across data sources and additional reasons why models might provide different base-year numbers, including differences in regional definitions, differences in model base year, and differences in GDP transformation methodologies, are then discussed in the context of the AME scenarios. Finally, the paper explores the implications of base-year variation on long-term model results.

► Data for 2005 compared across databases and models. ► Population data similar; GDP, energy and emissions vary across data sources. ► Different regional definitions and base year across models. ► Sources of statistical data vary across models. ► Method of GDP transformation yields different GDP data.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 34, Supplement 3, December 2012, Pages S261-S271
نویسندگان
, , , ,