Climate policy and fiscal constraints: Do tax interactions outweigh carbon leakage?

Climate policymaking faces twin challenges of carbon leakage and public sector revenue requirements. A large literature advocates the use of CO2 pricing and recycling the revenues to lower distorting taxes as a way to minimize costs. In this paper, we explore the implications of labor tax interactions for cost-effectiveness of border adjustments and other measures to cope with leakage. We find that, for plausible values of labor supply elasticities, the cost savings from revenue recycling are significant-from 15 to 25%. The cost savings from anti-leakage measures are generally smaller, but also significant, particularly for small coalitions or more binding reduction targets. Tax interactions further enhance the cost savings from border adjustments, but make other measures like rebates or exemptions less attractive.

► Cost savings from using emissions revenues to lower labor taxes are significant. ► Cost savings from addressing leakage are generally smaller but still significant. ► Tax interactions enhance cost savings from BCA relative to other measures. ► Both coalition and noncoalition countries benefit from revenue recycling. ► Both also benefit from BCA when tariff revenues are kept by exporters.