کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5065489 1372318 2010 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility
چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper we introduce a new stochastic long-term/short-term model for short-term electricity prices, and apply it to four major European indices, namely to the German, Dutch, UK and Nordic one. We give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic (mostly annual) patterns, and show how to use the wavelet transform, a tool of multiresolution analysis, for filtering purpose. The wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long-term trend from the short-term oscillation in the seasonal-adjusted log-prices.In all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility, which we incorporate by using a bivariate GARCH model with constant correlation.Eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data, and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best. For the error distribution, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution shows the best fit.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 32, Issue 5, September 2010, Pages 1074-1081
نویسندگان
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