کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5065931 1372335 2008 16 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts
چکیده انگلیسی

One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and coal supplies are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification- or directional-based measures. Results suggest the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supply forecasts for U.S. domestic energy products are generally more accurate than a naïve alternative. There is only limited evidence of bias and inefficiency in the forecasts; although there is some evidence of error repetition. Directional forecasts for supply changes are statistically better than random, but they generally do not outperform a naïve forecast.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 30, Issue 3, May 2008, Pages 1192-1207
نویسندگان
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