A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems.