Risk evaluation in Colombian electricity market using fuzzy logic

This article proposes a model based on Fuzzy Logic to valuate the market risk that a trading agent faces in the electric power negotiation in Colombia, as part of a general model of negotiation. The proposed model considers single external factors as regulatory changes, social and political issues, and the condition of the national transmission net. Variables of the market associated to these risk factors were selected and some graphic and statistical analyses were made in order to check their relationship with the electricity prices and to determine why the experts consider these factors in their analyses. According to the obtained results a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System which contains the expert knowledge was developed and it is presented in a fuzzy cognitive map.