کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5071793 1477077 2013 18 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Confidence and decision
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Confidence and decision
چکیده انگلیسی


- We propose a model of confidence in beliefs.
- We use it to develop a rule for decision making under uncertainty.
- Guiding maxim: The higher the stakes, the more confidence is required in a belief.
- The decision model is axiomatised.
- The decision model permits separation of beliefs and tastes.

Many real-life decisions have to be taken on the basis of probability judgements of which the decision maker is not entirely sure. This paper develops a decision rule for taking such decisions, which incorporates the decision makerʼs confidence in his probability judgements according to the following maxim: the larger the stakes involved in a decision, the more confidence is required in a probability judgement for it to play a role in the decision. A formal representation of the decision makerʼs confidence is proposed and used to formulate a family of decision models conforming to this maxim. A natural member of this family is studied in detail. It is structurally simpler than other recent models of decision under uncertainty, which may make it easier to apply to practical decisions, whilst being axiomatically sound, permitting the separation of beliefs and tastes, and allowing comparative statics analysis of attitudes to choosing in the absence of confidence.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Games and Economic Behavior - Volume 82, November 2013, Pages 675-692
نویسندگان
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