A robust R&D project portfolio optimization model for pharmaceutical contract research organizations

Pharmaceutical drug Research and Development (R&D) outsourcing to contract research organizations (CROs) has experienced a significant growth in recent decades and the trend is expected to continue. A key question for CROs and firms in similar environments is which projects should be included in the firm׳s portfolio of projects. As a distinctive contribution to the literature this paper develops and evaluates a business support tool to help a CRO decide on clinical R&D project opportunities and revise its portfolio of R&D projects given the existing constraints, and financial and resource capabilities. A new mathematical programming model in the form of a capital budgeting problem is developed to help revising and rescheduling of the project portfolio. The uncertainty of pharmaceutical R&D cost estimates in drug development stages is captured to mimic a more realistic representation of pharmaceutical R&D projects, and a robust optimization approach is used to tackle the uncertain formulation. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach.