Forecasting the carbon footprint of road freight transport in 2020

This paper reports on research undertaken to determine the baseline trends in logistics and supply chain management and associated environmental effects up to 2020. Factors affecting freight transport demand, truck fuel consumption and related CO2 emissions are classified into six categories in relation to different levels of logistical decision-making. The projections are based on the results of seven focus group discussions and a large-scale Delphi survey. Three scenarios are constructed to assess CO2 emission levels from road freight transport in 2020. The likely changes in the key logistics variables are discussed and the complexity of the problem is highlighted.