کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5084422 | 1477901 | 2017 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
In this paper we will estimate the term structure of daily U.K. interest rates using a range of more flexible continuous-time models. A multivariate framework is employed for the dynamic estimation and forecasting of four classic models over the eventful period of 2000-2013. The extensions are applied in two stages to four- and five-factor formulations, allowing us to assess the potential benefit of gradually increasing the model-flexibility. The Gaussian estimation methods for dynamic continuous-time models yield insightful comparative results concerning the two different segments of the yield curve, short- and long-term, respectively. In terms of in-sample performance the newly extended multi-factor general model is superior to all other restricted models. When compared to benchmark discrete-time models, the out-of-sample performance of the extended continuous-time models seems to be consistently superior with regards to the short-term segment of the yield curve.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Review of Financial Analysis - Volume 52, July 2017, Pages 119-129
Journal: International Review of Financial Analysis - Volume 52, July 2017, Pages 119-129
نویسندگان
Diana Tunaru,