Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook

► We analyse sovereign watch and outlook signals from Moody's, S&P and Fitch. ► Agencies' actions imply different policies. ► There is evidence of momentum in negative outlook signals, but no watch momentum. ► S&P is the most independent agency, while Fitch is the most dependent. ► Moody's tends to be the first mover in positive outlook and positive watch signals.