Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research

This paper examines “bundled” forecasts, or management earnings forecasts issued concurrently with earnings announcements, which have evolved to become the most common type of management forecast. We describe the econometric problems associated with measuring bundled forecast news and, in particular, provide evidence that the measurement error in the traditional calculation of forecast news is material and is systematically associated with variables frequently studied in forecast-related research. We illustrate an application of conditional expectations to overcome these problems. Finally, we offer guidance and caveats to researchers considering the use of this method in the future.

► Bundled forecasts are now the most common type of management forecast. ► Forecast news in bundled forecasts is measured with significant error. ► We introduce a new method for measuring forecast news for bundled forecasts.