Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts

► We examine whether attribution bias causes overconfidence in managerial forecasts. ► We also examine the effect of this cognitive bias on the managerial credibility. ► Past success leads managers to become less accurate in their subsequent forecasts. ► These managers display greater divergence from the consensus and are more precise. ► Investors and analysts react less strongly to forecasts by overconfident managers.