Child mortality risk and fertility: Evidence from prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV

A fundamental question in development and growth is whether and how fast fertility responds to reductions in child mortality risk. I use the expansion of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) in Zambia to provide some of the first quasi-experimental evidence on this question. My results suggest that the local introduction of PMTCT reduced pregnancy rates by approximately 10%, particularly among likely HIV positive women and women in locations where PMTCT was available for a longer duration, and that PMTCT substantially increased breastfeeding rates.