Regular ArticleSegregation and conflict: An empirical analysis

- Ethnic segregation and language segregation are correlated with the incidence of conflict.
- Religious segregation is not correlated with conflict.
- The correlation includes escalation and continuation of conflict.
- The correlation does not include the onset of conflict.
- Two channels of influence are trust and secession threats.

This paper examines the relationship between segregation and several intensities of civil conflict. Our results are as follows. First, both ethnic segregation and language segregation exhibit a strong and robust correlation with the incidence of conflict at any intensity level; that is, from civil wars to social disorder and protests. Conversely, religious segregation does not affect any type of conflict. Second, ethnic segregation and language segregation are related to the escalation and continuation of conflict but are unrelated to its onset. Regardless of the mechanism of segregation, its effect is unrelated to the outbreak of violence but it is related to the reinforcing of existing conflicts. Third, two channels of influence are trust and secession threats, in the sense that the measures associated with those channels are influenced by segregation and, at the same time, reduce the effect of the geographic group concentration on conflict.