کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5094467 1478500 2014 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters
چکیده انگلیسی


- We provide a new global database of the physical intensity of natural disasters.
- Data based on damage reports lead to biased estimates of the disaster-growth nexus.
- The new data strongly indicate negative growth effects of natural disasters.
- Institutional quality and international openness mitigate the negative effects.

Growth theory predicts that natural disasters should, on impact, lower GDP per capita. However, the empirical literature does not offer conclusive evidence. Most existing studies use disaster data drawn from damage records of insurance companies. We argue that this may lead to estimation bias as damage data and the selection into the database may correlate with GDP. We build a comprehensive database of disaster events and their intensities from primary geophysical and meteorological information. In contrast to insurance data, our GeoMet data reveal a substantial negative and robust average impact effect of disasters on growth. The worst 5% disaster years come with a growth damage of at least 0.46 percentage points. That average effect is driven mainly by very large earthquakes and some meteorological disasters. Poor countries are more strongly affected by geophysical disasters; rich more by meteorological events. International openness and democratic institutions reduce the adverse effect of disasters.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Development Economics - Volume 111, November 2014, Pages 92-106
نویسندگان
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