Can cultural norms reduce conflicts? Confucianism and peasant rebellions in Qing China

Can culture mitigate conflicts triggered by economic shocks? In light of the extraordinary emphasis that Confucianism places on subordination and pacifism, we examine its role in possibly attenuating peasant rebellion within the historical context of China (circa 1651-1910). Our analysis finds that, while crop failure triggers peasant rebellion, its effect is significantly smaller in counties characterized by stronger Confucian norms as proxied by Confucian temples and chaste women. This result remains robust after controlling for a long list of covariates and instrumenting Confucian norms using ancient Confucian sages (500 B.C.-A.D. 550) to address concerns of measurement error and reverse causality.