Assessment of structural simulation models by estimating uncertainties due to model selection and model simplification

In this paper several methods for model assessment considering uncertainties are discussed. Sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the influence of the individual model input parameters. In addition to the well-known analysis of a single model, a new procedure for quantifying the influence of the model choice on the uncertainty of the model prediction is proposed. Furthermore, a procedure is presented which can be used to estimate the model framework uncertainty and which enables the selection of the optimal model with the best compromise between model input and framework uncertainty. Finally Bayesian methods for model selection are extended for model assessment without measurements using model averaging as reference.