Performance expectations and the tenure of head coaches: Evidence from NCAA football

Previous research on coaching turnover indicates that a number of factors, including age, firm performance, and deviation from expected performance affect turnover. We examine the relationship between performance expectations and head coach turnover using data from NCAA Division I-A college football using a market-determined measure of expected performance, winning percentage against point spreads set in betting markets; this expected performance measure does not suffer from many of the problems that plague analysts' earnings forecasts. We find that performance expectations, actual performance, and tenure affect coaching tenure in NCAA Division I-A college football, based on performance data from 102 Division I-A football programs over the period 1980-2004.