کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5106331 | 1481433 | 2017 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
The paper presents a model for forecasting association football scores. The model uses a Weibull inter-arrival-times-based count process and a copula to produce a bivariate distribution of the numbers of goals scored by the home and away teams in a match. We test it against a variety of alternatives, including the simpler Poisson distribution-based model and an independent version of our model. The out-of-sample performance of our methodology is illustrated using, first, calibration curves, then a Kelly-type betting strategy that is applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market and to the over-under 2.5 goals market. The new model provides an improved fit to the data relative to previous models, and results in positive returns to betting.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 33, Issue 2, AprilâJune 2017, Pages 458-466
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 33, Issue 2, AprilâJune 2017, Pages 458-466
نویسندگان
Georgi Boshnakov, Tarak Kharrat, Ian G. McHale,