Administración del riesgo crediticio al menudeo en México: una mejora econométrica en la selección de variables y cambios en sus características

The early prediction of bad debtors in revolving loans in Mexico is a relevant current issue. The proposed econometric model of behavioral scoring considers the changes in the characteristics of consolidated clients and produces better results than those obtained with methodology used by the CNBV on provisions. The obtained results show the possibility of replacing the current model, minimizing the expected loss and increasing the ROA of Mexican financial institutions in 2.20% complying the methodology and statistical testing criteria according to the Unique Banking Dispositions and the guidelines of Basel II on credit risk.