Original research articleLake management in 2030-Five future images based on an international Delphi study

- Five future images of lake management was produced using Delphi method.
- Relatively large Delphi panel was gathered and found promising.
- Opinion clusters formed the basis of future images.
- The difference between future images and scenarios is reviewed.

The freshwaters of the world are facing enormous pressures and demands. Eutrophication is a widespread problem threatening the biodiversity and usability of waters. Unfortunately, the means to alleviate eutrophication are either difficult to realize, inefficient, or effective only on the short-term. In addition, the use of various means is laden with interests, contradictory values and cultural goals, which further complicate the wicked problem of eutrophication and lake management. To scrutinize the problem, a two-round, international Delphi study was carried out. This paper uncovers lake experts' views on how eutrophic lakes will and should be managed and restored in the future up to 2030. Through cluster analysis, the variety of the views of the experts was condensed into five coherent future images: Business as Usual, Let's Heal the Lakes, No More Nutrient Discharges, Back to Nature, and Dystopia. The Delphi panel evaluated the Business as Usual as the most probable and the Let's Heal the Lakes as the most preferred of the future images. In this paper, we discuss the future images, their preconditions and policy requirements. We also discuss the concept of future images as well as methodological characteristics of relatively large Delphi panels.