کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
518581 867602 2009 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Bayesian prediction of an epidemic curve
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزارهای علوم کامپیوتر
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Bayesian prediction of an epidemic curve
چکیده انگلیسی

An epidemic curve is a graph in which the number of new cases of an outbreak disease is plotted against time. Epidemic curves are ordinarily constructed after the disease outbreak is over. However, a good estimate of the epidemic curve early in an outbreak would be invaluable to health care officials. Currently, techniques for predicting the severity of an outbreak are very limited. As far as predicting the number of future cases, ordinarily epidemiologists simply make an educated guess as to how many people might become affected. We develop a model for estimating an epidemic curve early in an outbreak, and we show results of experiments testing its accuracy.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Biomedical Informatics - Volume 42, Issue 1, February 2009, Pages 90–99
نویسندگان
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