Accuracy of reinforcement learning algorithms for predicting aircraft taxi-out times: A case-study of Tampa Bay departures

Taxi-out delay is a significant portion of the block time of a flight. Uncertainty in taxi-out times reduces predictability of arrival times at the destination. This in turn results in inefficient use of airline resources such as aircraft, crew, and ground personnel. Taxi-out time prediction is also a first step in enabling schedule modifications that would help mitigate congestion and reduce emissions. The dynamically changing operation at the airport makes it difficult to accurately predict taxi-out time. In this paper we investigate the accuracy of taxi out time prediction using a nonparametric reinforcement learning (RL) based method, set in the probabilistic framework of stochastic dynamic programming. A case-study of Tampa International Airport (TPA) shows that on an average, with 93.7% probability, on any given day, our predicted mean taxi-out time for any given quarter, matches the actual mean taxi-out time for the same quarter with a standard error of 1.5 min. Also, for individual flights, the taxi-out time of 81% of them were predicted accurately within a standard error of 2 min. The predictions were done 15 min before gate departure. Gate OUT, wheels OFF, wheels ON, and gate IN (OOOI) data available in the Aviation System Performance Metric (ASPM) database maintained by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was used to model and analyze the problem. The prediction accuracy is high even without the use of detailed track data.