WRF inversion base height ensembles for simulating marine boundary layer stratocumulus

Increasing distributed rooftop solar photovoltaic generation in the southern California coast necessitates accurate solar forecasts. In summertime mornings marine boundary layer stratocumulus commonly covers the southern California coast. The inland extent of cloud cover varies primarily depending on the temperature inversion base height (IBH, i.e. boundary layer height) and topography as confirmed using radiosonde sounding measurement and satellite irradiance data. Most operational numerical weather prediction models consistently overestimate irradiance and underpredict cloud cover extent and cloud thickness, presumably due to an underprediction of IBH. A thermodynamic method was developed to modify the boundary layer temperature and moisture profiles to better represent the boundary layer structure in the Weather and Research Forecasting model (WRF). Validation against satellite global horizontal irradiance (GHI) demonstrated that the best IBH ensemble improves GHI accuracy by 23% mean absolute error compared to the baseline WRF model and is similar to 24-h persistence forecasts for coastal marine layer region. The spatial error maps showed deeper inland cloud cover. Validation against ground observations showed that IBH ensembles were able to outperform persistence forecast at coastal stations.