A foundation for the strategic long-term planning of the renewable energy sector in Brazil: Hydroelectricity and wind energy in the face of climate change scenarios

The current article assesses the vulnerability of renewable energies in Brazil in the face of climate change, with hydroelectricity and wind power taken as case studies. Future climate data produced by the National Institute for Space Research were employed for three time slices (2010-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) taken from the Eta 20 km regional model using the global model HadGem2-ES of the IPCC AR5, for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Based on these data and using indicators, it was possible to generate predictions that are useful for the evaluation of the impacts of future climate scenarios on the current energy infrastructure, enabling the proposition of recommendations for mitigation and adaptation in the energy sector, a strategic subject for Brazilian governmental programs.