Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application

This paper applied a scenario-based analysis to explore Nigeria's future energy demand, supply and associated GHG emissions from 2010 to 2040 using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. The impact of different energy policies are analysed for the Nigerian energy system by considering four scenarios: the reference scenario (REF), the low-carbon moderate scenario (LCM), the low-carbon advanced scenario (LCA), and the green optimistic scenario (GO). By considering aggressive energy policies and strategies from LCM to LCA, and even more aggressive options in the GO scenario, we find that under the REF scenario energy demand is expected to reach 3,075 PJ and a corresponding increase in GHG emissions of 201.2 Mt Co2e by 2040. More aggressive policy intervention by the Nigerian government, as in the GO scenario, would lead to a decrease in energy demand (2,249 PJ) and GHG emissions (124.4 Mt Co2e) in 2040. A cost-benefit and energy system analysis were also carried out in the study.