Prospects for the Brazilian electricity sector in the 2030s: Scenarios and guidelines for its transformation

The long-term study of the electricity sector needs to consider a number of variables beyond the changes in population or economic activity, and include the availability of resources, the development of technology standards, environmental management and cultural habits. Thus, quantitative predictions may prove fragile and a consistent alternative lies in developing qualitative scenarios. In this article, we examine the characteristics of the Brazilian electricity sector to the 2030s, evaluating the uncertainties inherent in energy use patterns, the expectation of expanding the supply of electricity, the rate of development, the spread of smart grids, the insertion electric vehicles, commercial and regulatory trends as well as the future structure of the business environment. The goal is to present in summary form the constructed scenarios and guidelines formulated for the Brazilian electricity sector of the 2030s, through the different topics previously mentioned. In this study, we consider society's behavior as the central variable distinguishing the baseline scenario and the scenario “Energy in Future City”. In short, the scenario “Energy in Future City” is expected that consumers will have a more active behavior and grant more importance to the quality and sustainability in the baseline scenario. Thus, while the power supply expansion reference scenario occurs primarily from the operation of conventional sources and advances in smart grids and electric mobility are limited, in the scenario “Energy in the City of the Future”, there the emergence of new technologies associated with the diffusion of new business models and a regulatory framework less interventionist.