Maternal serum markers in predicting successful outcome in expectant management of missed miscarriage

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of biological serum markers, available routinely in most hospital clinical laboratories, in predicting successful outcomes of expectant management in women presenting with a missed miscarriage. This is a single centre observational prospective study over a 16-month period. Among the 490 women who consented to the study protocol, 83 presented with missed miscarriage during the first trimester of pregnancy and opted for expectant management. The mean gestation sac diameter and volume of the gestation sac were recorded during ultrasound examination. Maternal serum samples were obtained in each case and assayed for human chorionic gonadotrophin, progesterone, pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein using commercial assays. When examined individually, maternal age (P = 0.01), progesterone (P = 0.03) and PAPP-A (P = 0.02) were all significantly associated with successful expectant management. Increased maternal age was associated with an increased chance of success with the odds of success increased by around 75% for a 5-year increase in age. Higher values of progesterone and PAPP-A were associated with a reduced chance of successful management. Low maternal serum progesterone concentration was the strongest parameter associated with a successful spontaneous completion of miscarriage.