Analyzing angle crashes at unsignalized intersections using machine learning techniques

A recently developed machine learning technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is introduced in this study to predict vehicles’ angle crashes. MARS has a promising prediction power, and does not suffer from interpretation complexity. Negative Binomial (NB) and MARS models were fitted and compared using extensive data collected on unsignalized intersections in Florida. Two models were estimated for angle crash frequency at 3- and 4-legged unsignalized intersections. Treating crash frequency as a continuous response variable for fitting a MARS model was also examined by considering the natural logarithm of the crash frequency. Finally, combining MARS with another machine learning technique (random forest) was explored and discussed. The fitted NB angle crash models showed several significant factors that contribute to angle crash occurrence at unsignalized intersections such as, traffic volume on the major road, the upstream distance to the nearest signalized intersection, the distance between successive unsignalized intersections, median type on the major approach, percentage of trucks on the major approach, size of the intersection and the geographic location within the state. Based on the mean square prediction error (MSPE) assessment criterion, MARS outperformed the corresponding NB models. Also, using MARS for predicting continuous response variables yielded more favorable results than predicting discrete response variables. The generated MARS models showed the most promising results after screening the covariates using random forest. Based on the results of this study, MARS is recommended as an efficient technique for predicting crashes at unsignalized intersections (angle crashes in this study).

Research highlights▶ Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) has promising prediction power. ▶ MARS model prediction outperformed the Negative Binomial (NB) model prediction. ▶ MARS yielded the best prediction performance by considering a continuous response. ▶ Using random forest for variables screening before fitting MARS model is promising. ▶ MARS is recommended for angle crashes prediction at unsignalized intersections.