Original ArticlesValuing ecosystem services to explore scenarios for adaptive spatial planning

As the ecosystem services concept increasingly gains importance, it needs translation into practical applications. Recent efforts of EU member states to map ES are opening new opportunities to include ES in spatial planning and adaptive land management. For this, spatial planners and policy makers need practical tools that integrate a variety of social and biophysical information in an accessible way. We argue that monetary valuation of ES can contribute to this challenge. A methodological framework was developed to explore adaptive management of bioproductive space. The first stage in the methodology is a spatially explicit evaluation of various ecosystem services for different land uses. In a second stage, bio-physical and socio-economic drivers or shocks are introduced that can influence the value society attributes to specific ecosystem services. The third stage of the methodology takes policy priorities into account. In a final stage, the output of the approach is synthesised by ranking the analysis results for different scenarios and policy priority settings. This methodology allows spatial planners to explore and evaluate policy decisions against trade-offs between various land use alternatives, while taking ecosystem services into account. To demonstrate its use, the methodology is applied to a small-scale case study that combines extensive livestock production with the development of natural values. The application to the case demonstrates that the optimal strategy from a societal perspective, can be highly context-dependent. Besides the potential for supporting policy makers to think about the broader implications of land use changes for community wellbeing, the methodology provides useful feedback for adaptive farm and landscape management. We underline both the potential and possible caveats in using this approach for land use evaluation.