Original ArticlesProjecting the impacts of urban expansion on simultaneous losses of ecosystem services: A case study in Beijing, China

- Urban expansion will lead to losses of five ESs in Beijing from 2013 to 2040.
- Simultaneous losses of six pairs of ESs can be identified in Beijing.
- Occupying cropland and forest land is the main cause of the simultaneous losses.
- Urban expansion will aggravate simultaneous losses of six pairs of ESs.

Assessing the impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is fundamental to understanding urban sustainability. However, little is known about the intensity of simultaneous losses of ESs over time caused by urban expansion. Taking Beijing as an example, this study sought to simulate the historical and potential impacts of urban expansion on the simultaneous losses of main ESs. We projected the impacts of urban expansion on the simultaneous losses of main ESs from 1990 to 2013 and simulated the potential impacts from 2013 to 2040 by combining ES mapping models, an urban expansion model and statistical methods. The results show that food production, water conservation, habitat quality, carbon storage, and air quality regulation in Beijing from 2013 to 2040 will decrease by 20.70%, 8.69%, 6.45%, 5.76%, and 3.92%, respectively. Meanwhile, the simultaneous losses of water conservation, habitat quality, carbon storage, and air quality regulation will be aggravated. Increases in the replacement of forest land by urban land will be the main cause for the aggravation of simultaneous losses of ESs. From 2013 to 2040, 11.08% of expanded urban land will replace forest land, which is much higher than the 3.24% change from 1990 to 2013. Thus, more attention should be paid to protecting forest land and cropland with high ES values in rapidly urbanized regions.

246