The elasticity of the potential of emission reduction to energy saving: Definition, measurement, and evidence from China

- We define the elasticity of the potential of emission reduction to energy saving.
- The elasticity reflects the validity of energy saving for CO2 emission reduction.
- We estimate the elasticity of 30 provincial regions in China.
- Compared with energy saving, emission reduction is a more serious issue in China.
- The elasticity of Eastern China is greater than those of Central and Western China.

Based on energy and CO2 emission efficiencies, this paper proposes a definition of the elasticity of the potential of emission reduction to energy saving (Eperes), and measures the elasticity in China's 30 provincial regions. Although Eperes is a relative definition, it can be used (1) to measure the amount of reduced CO2 emissions per unit fossil energy saving, (2) to reflect the effectiveness of fossil energy saving for CO2 emission reduction in different regions, and (3) to provide decision-making criteria for selecting pathways for emission reductions in different regions. The results show that compared with energy saving, emission reduction is a more serious issue in China. This indicates that energy saving policies have been highly effective since their implementation during the 11th “Five-Year Plan”. With respect to provincial disparities, the emission reductions caused by fossil energy saving are not significant in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong. Fujian province has significant Eperes, indicating that emission reduction causing by fossil energy saving is effective. Eperes has been increasing over time in Hunan and Hubei. Hainan's Eperes has remained less than 1, indicating that its emission-reduction effect of fossil energy saving is worse than in other provinces. Moreover, the elasticity of Eastern China is greater than that of Central China and Western China. This finding sheds light on pathway selection for energy saving and emission reduction in China: it would be more appropriate to encourage fossil energy saving in Eastern China, and to promote clean energy use (e.g., water electricity and solar energy) in Central China and Western China.